Carroll Lab

University of Minnesota

FAMILY MEDICINE

Minneapolis · United States

NIH-funded
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NIH R01 · 2025

Impact analysis to prepare the nation and states for potential cigarette product standards

PROJECT SUMMARY To increase smoking cessation rates from the status quo (7.4% of people who smoke [PWS] quit smoking each year in the U.S.) and curb cancer, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is considering the implementation of two cigarette product standards. The first is the FDA’s proposed menthol ban (MB). The second is a nicotine reduction standard (NRS). Based on published literature encompassing modeling studies, behavioral intent estimates, and expert elicitation, as well as our team’s preliminary data, the MB is anticipated to motivate 7.3% to 17.7% of PWS menthol cigarettes to quit and the NRS is anticipated to motivate 46.8% to 57.5% of all PWS to quit. These levels of…

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