ERC Consolidator Grant · 2020
The Patterns of Conflict Emergence: Developing an Automated Pattern Recognition System for Conflict
Are there recurring patterns in the escalation and emergence of wars? The idea that history may repeat itself is old. But recent advances overcoming methodological and data barriers present an opportunity to identify these recurrences empirically and to examine whether these patterns can be classified to improve forecasts and inform theories of conflict. I propose to combine new methods—using the shape of the sequence of events rather than its raw values—and novel data on conflict from finance, diplomatic cables, and newspapers, to extract typical pre-war motifs. Just as DNA sequencing has been critical to medical diagnoses, PaCE aims to diagnose international politics by uncovering the…
From the public funding record at EU CORDIS. Describes the funded project, not the reviews below.