Iovino Lab

Bocconi University Milan

Nord-Ovest (ITC) · Italy

ERC-funded
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Research focus

ERC Consolidator Grant · 2022

Great Expectations: Macroeconomic Implications of Forecasting Behavior

The goal of this proposal is to advance the research frontier on expectations formation and their economic impact. The proposal consists of three related projects that, through the provision of novel empirical evidence and the design of a new theoretical framework, can guide future research and better inform policy decisions. Recent empirical evidence suggests that expectations react to shocks sluggishly, but—one might argue—this may only be the case because data was gathered under stable economic conditions. We plan to explore the hypothesis that expectations quickly adapt and “de-anchor” in periods of economic turmoil. If, as we conjecture, expectations are state dependent, then a better…

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