Esper Lab

University of Mainz

Rheinland-Pfalz (DEB) · Germany

ERC-funded
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ERC Advanced Grant · 2019

Modelling non-stationary tree growth responses to global warming

Tree-rings are a key proxy archive for reconstructing high resolution climate variability over the past 1-2ka at regional to global scales. Skillful reconstructions require a stationary relationship between tree growth and climate (Hutton’s principle of uniformitarianism), which is commonly evaluated by statistical calibration/verification trials against instrumental measurements. This association, however, weakened during the second half of the 20th century, when tree-ring width and density chronologies from Northern Hemisphere forests were not able to track the rapidly increasing temperatures. This so-called “divergence” problem was identified in the 1990s to be a large-scale phenomenon,…

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